Category Archives: 2010 Season

2010 BPR Trend Plots

As a final wrap-up of the 2010 Formula 1 season, I compiled several line plots with polynomial trend lines of the BPR POWER rating to help show the general progression of the past season’s results.  I chose a 4-order polynomial trend line for the plots to essentially break down the season trends into quarters.  The line plots focus first on the 5-way title fight between Lewis Hamilton, Jenson Button, Sebastian Vettel, Mark Webber, and Fernando Alonso, with an additional plot displaying the championship points progression for the same group of drivers.  The focus then shifts to team trends, with the first plot displaying the season’s 3 elite teams, the mid-field, and the 3 new teams.

DRIVERS CHAMPIONSHIP CONTENDERS TREND LINES

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DRIVERS CHAMPIONSHIP CONTENDERS POINTS

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ELITE TEAMS

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MID-FIELD TEAMS

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THE NEW TEAMS

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by Trey Blincoe

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2010 BPR Correlation Analysis

As part of BPR F1’s ongoing season wrap-up, I thought that reviewing the correlation between the BPR POWER rating and the actual on-track results during the 2010 Formula 1 season would be a worthwhile exercise.

For the less mathematically-inclined, correlation is a study of the relationship between two sets of variables (a good, brief explanation of correlation can be found here).  In evaluating the POWER rating’s relationship to on-track results, I used one of the most common methods of displaying correlation: a correlation coefficient.  A correlation coefficient ranges from -1.0 to +1.0. The closer the coefficient is to +1 or -1, the more closely the two sets of variables are related.  Once again, the foregoing link provides a good explanation of what a correlation coefficient represents.

My main purpose in running a correlation analysis was to evaluate how well the BPR POWER rating predicted the next round’s results throughout the 2010 Formula 1 season.  It wouldn’t make sense to run a correlation between the individual-round BPR ratings and the on-track results from that same event, as the BPR formula is based solely on on-track performance and inherently correlated.  Therefore, I ran the “CORREL” function in Microsoft Excel for the POWER rating preceding each round against the next round’s results.  To illustrate: the post-Bahrain POWER rating was correlated to the results of Australia, the post-Australia POWER rating was correlated to the results of Malaysia, and so on.  For those that are interested, Excel’s CORREL function uses the covariance of the variable sets and the standard deviations of each set to arrive at its correlation coefficient output.

I evaluated the POWER rating’s correlation to the finishing position of all 24 driver/entries at subsequent rounds in two ways: by utilizing the actual POWER rating as well as the rankings based on the POWER rating which are included in each BPR table posted on BPR F1.  The results of each correlation analysis are provided in the tables below, with the corresponding results being utilized to generate a line plot also displayed below.  The POWER rating’s correlations were inversed from negative to positive to allow for continuity in graphing.

BPR POWER RATING / RACE FINISH POSITION CORRELATION TABLE

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BPR RANKING / RACE FINISH POSITION CORRELATION TABLE

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COMBINED CORRELATION LINE PLOT

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(Note that because there was no pre-round POWER rating for the season-opening Bahrain Grand Prix, that round does not have a corresponding correlation coefficient.  Asterisks next to round abbreviations indicates a year-to-year change in track configuration, and the letters in parentheses next to some round abbreviations indicates the track used for events which have alternated tracks in recent history.  Coefficient boxes shaded in light-blue indicate a race that was run in wet conditions.)

With nearly identical average coefficients of 0.779 and 0.778, the POWER rating and its associated rankings are certainly correlated to finishing positions at consecutive races.  Take the correlations one step further and the POWER rating is indeed a “predictor” of future results.  However, the POWER rating was never designed to be a prediction model and its predicting abilities are solely related to its reflection of current performance trends prior to each consecutive race.

With the foregoing in mind, I intend to adapt the existing BPR formula to create a predictor model for the 2011 Formula 1 season.  At this stage, the model will incorporate the POWER rating as well as a separate formula based on track-type performances which positively correlate to other rounds.  Including the second calculation is intended to address the simple fact that there are completely different tracks on the Formula 1 calendar which tend to produce different results based on individual car and driver characteristics.  Although it’s relatively obvious that the results of the Monaco Grand Prix are unlikely to reflect the results of say, the Italian Grand Prix at Monza, result relationships amongst other tracks aren’t as obvious.  Therefore, I decided to run a correlation of all the BPR scores for each round on the 2010 Formula 1 calendar to find which events’ results correlate.  Remember that the BPR incorporates a lot of data for all 24 participating drivers at each round and therefore the correlation results should be fairly dependable.

BPR RATING / BPR RATING CORRELATION TABLE

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(Note the light-blue shading used once again to show races which ran in wet conditions, with darker blue shading indicating a strong correlation between two races which were run in the wet.)

I’ll let the reader digest some of the more interesting correlations in the above table and what they entail, but I highlighted all correlation coefficients of 0.900+ as being especially relevant.

Look for the upcoming BPR predictor at BPR F1 in addition to the regularly-posted BPR materials throughout the 2011 Formula 1 season.

posted by Trey Blincoe

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2010 BPR Season Summary

In the coming weeks, BPR F1 will be posting several summary items evaluating the entirety of the 2010 Formula 1 World Championship season.

The season summary table posted below focuses on the BPR AVG rating in lieu of the POWER rating highlighted by the in-season BPR tables.  As explained in the BPR table explanation, the AVG rating is exactly what its name entails: a pure average of the individual round BPR scores posted by each driver/entry throughout the season.  The per-round BPR scores for each driver/entry are provided in the same manner as the regularly-posted BPR tables.

In addition to the AVG rating, a Team COMP section is included in the summary table.  Team COMP is intended to reflect the performance differentiation between drivers on the same team by providing each team’s average BPR rating (“(T) AVG”), and the difference between each respective driver’s AVG rating from the team’s mean (“+/-“).  Teammate comparisons receive a lot of attention in the F1 paddock because comparisons between drivers on different teams are difficult to quantify as each team fields different machinery. It’s important to note that each +/- figure reflects the average difference between teammates per round for 19 rounds; so even relatively small differences between teammates are actually quite significant when extended out over the entirety of the season.  As such, each +/- box is color coded with yellow shading reflecting less statistically-significant figures (0 – +/-0.999), green reflecting positive differentiation (> 0.000), and red reflecting negative differentiation (< 0.000).  Any +/- box with its figure in bold reflects a statistically-significant differentiation (> +2.000, or < -2.000).

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posted by Trey Blincoe

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BPR Charts – Round 19: Abu Dhabi Grand Prix

As a supplement to the regularly posted BPR tables, bprf1.com will chart the progress of the BPR POWER rating throughout the season.

The drivers line plots are broken down into graphs displaying: (1) the entire POWER rating range (0-100); (2) POWER ratings denoting possible points scoring performance (75-100); (3) POWER ratings denoting possible podium performance (85-100); and (4) POWER ratings denoting possible race-winning performance (90-100). A ranking plot is also provided, and is based on the rankings contained in the BPR table following each round.

For the teams line plot, the POWER ratings of both drivers are combined from each round to compose a team rating. A positional ranking plot is also provided for the teams as well.

DRIVERS – FULL RANGE (0-100)

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DRIVERS – POSSIBLE POINT SCORERS (75-100)

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DRIVERS – POSSIBLE PODIUM FINISHERS (85-100)

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DRIVERS – PROBABLE RACE WINNERS (90-100)

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DRIVERS – RANKINGS

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TEAMS – FULL RANGE (0-100)

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TEAMS – RANKINGS

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posted by Trey Blincoe

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BPR Update – Round 19: Abu Dhabi Grand Prix

2010 FIA Formula 1 World Championship – BPR Through Results of Rd. 19: Abu Dhabi Grand Prix

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Don’t understand what’s going on here? The Blincoe Performance Rating (“BPR”) is a statistical motorsport performance rating system that monitors driver/entry performance during each Formula 1 season. For more information: see this explanation.

posted by Trey Blincoe

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BPR Update – Round 18: Brazilian Grand Prix

2010 FIA Formula 1 World Championship – BPR Through Results of Rd. 18: Brazilian Grand Prix

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Don’t understand what’s going on here? The Blincoe Performance Rating (“BPR”) is a statistical motorsport performance rating system that monitors driver/entry performance during each Formula 1 season. For more information: see this explanation.

posted by Trey Blincoe

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BPR Charts – Round 17: Korean Grand Prix

As a supplement to the regularly posted BPR tables, bprf1.com will chart the progress of the BPR POWER rating throughout the season.

The drivers line plots are broken down into graphs displaying: (1) the entire POWER rating range (0-100); (2) POWER ratings denoting possible points scoring performance (75-100); (3) POWER ratings denoting possible podium performance (85-100); and (4) POWER ratings denoting possible race-winning performance (90-100). A ranking plot is also provided, and is based on the rankings contained in the BPR table following each round.

For the teams line plot, the POWER ratings of both drivers are combined from each round to compose a team rating. A positional ranking plot is also provided for the teams as well.

DRIVERS – FULL RANGE (0-100)

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DRIVERS – POSSIBLE POINT SCORERS (75-100)

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DRIVERS – POSSIBLE PODIUM FINISHERS (85-100)

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DRIVERS – PROBABLE RACE WINNERS (90-100)

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DRIVERS – RANKINGS

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TEAMS – FULL RANGE (0-100)

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TEAMS – RANKINGS

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posted by Trey Blincoe

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Filed under 2010 Season, BPR